DOSSIER 1 — ESPAÑA 2025

España 2025: Fragmentation, Institutional Reconfiguration and the Crisis of Cohesion

JPA Strategic Dossier — Structural Analysis Unit

Spain's political system is not collapsing — but its symbolic architecture is under sustained structural pressure. This dossier provides a causal, non-partisan reading of the forces reshaping Spain's institutional landscape, designed for executives, diplomats, investors and academics seeking a rigorous foundation for PESTEL analysis, market studies and strategic planning.

Scope and structure:

The analysis traces the evolution of Spain's democratic model across eight chapters, from the post-transition modernisation and European convergence (1986–2008), through the economic and emotional crisis that broke the meritocratic contract (2008–2013), to the Catalan process and its impact on the nation-state framework (2010–2019). It documents the mutation of the party system, the emergence of new political forces on both the left and the right, the strategic implications of the Amnesty Law, and the erosion of institutional neutrality across the judiciary, the Constitutional Court and the public prosecution service.

Key analytical findings:

• Spain achieved convergence from 72% to 91% of EU average GDP per capita between 1986 and 2007, but growth was structurally dependent on credit, construction and EU cohesion funds — vulnerabilities that crystallised after 2008.

• Unemployment reached 26.1% in 2013, with youth unemployment exceeding 55%, breaking the social contract and triggering the 15-M movement — a rupture that was emotional before it was political.

• The Catalan process revealed the limits of Spain's territorial model. The 2010 Constitutional Court ruling on the Estatut was perceived as a symbolic disavowal of a political pact, shifting self-identification patterns: "only Catalan" identity rose from 16% to 39% in a decade.

• Trust in political parties fell to 4% active participation. 73% of Spaniards consider the judiciary politically influenced, compared to 47% EU average.

• 58% of Spanish citizens aged 18–25 inform themselves about politics exclusively through social media — the deliberative framework has been replaced by algorithmic polarisation.

Strategic implication:

Spain is not broken, but it is in narrative pause. The gap between legal continuity and symbolic legitimacy constitutes a systemic risk for investment planning, institutional engagement and diplomatic positioning. The dossier proposes a framework of National Symbolic Cohesion Indicators and outlines the conditions for a collective direction strategy through 2030.

Audience: Boards, investment committees, diplomatic services, institutional planners, academic researchers.

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DOSSIER 2 — HYDROGEN 2030

Hydrogen 2030: Power, Capital and the Last Strategic Window

JPA Strategic Dossier — Structural Analysis Unit

Hydrogen is not becoming a unified global commodity market. It is consolidating as a bloc-structured system where competitiveness is manufactured by regulation, subsidy architecture and demand enforcement — not by technology cost curves. This dossier provides a structural, decision-oriented reading of the hydrogen system across global power blocs, designed for executives, investors and public institutions.

Scope and structure:

The analysis covers the 2025–2035 horizon across ten chapters: the executive decision framework, the 2026–2028 lock-in window, the three dominant hydrogen blocs (United States, Northern Europe, Japan–Korea), actor-specific decision maps for utilities, heavy industry, banks and governments, country-level playbooks for Germany, Netherlands, Italy and Finland, a regulatory risk-weapon matrix covering ten critical instruments, and seven strategic scenarios with decision triggers.

Key analytical findings:

• The United States has manufactured the most bankable hydrogen ecosystem globally through IRA Section 45V, offering up to USD 3/kg in production credits. Projects must commence construction before end-2027 to secure eligibility, creating a time-bound window that rewards early commitment.

• Northern Europe produces structural friction between 2025 and 2030 due to regulatory heterogeneity, subsidy competition (EHB, H2Global, SDE++, PNRR) and infrastructure lag. However, post-2030 convergence rewards early positioning — the bloc should not be dismissed.

• Japan and Korea have built the most durable demand architecture, anchoring competitiveness through long-term procurement, mandatory standards and carrier deployment. Standards set in Bloc C propagate globally via maritime shipping and synthetic fuels.

• A representative 200 MW European hydrogen project delayed by 18 months (FID from 2026 to 2028) faces WACC increases from 6.5–7.0% to 8.5–9.0%, incremental financing costs of €110–140 million, secured offtake falling below 40%, and exclusion from early infrastructure networks.

• Export-led strategies without anchored demand inside a dominant bloc — including MENA, Turkey and parts of the Gulf — face elevated stranding risk before 2030 regardless of resource quality.

Strategic implication:

Hydrogen decisions taken between 2026 and 2028 will determine who remains structurally relevant in the European and transatlantic energy system through 2035. The central executive question is no longer "where can hydrogen be produced cheaply?" but "which bloc will govern our cost structure, our certification and our demand?" Not answering is itself an answer. After the window closes, the system does not adapt to late entrants — late entrants adapt to the system.

Audience: CEOs, CFOs, strategy directors, energy executives, investment committees, government ministries, port authorities, banks and lenders.

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DOSSIER 3 — GLP-1: LA NUEVA ARQUITECTURA GLOBAL DE LA SALUD

GLP-1: The New Global Health Architecture — Industrial Dependency, Fiscal Pressure and Decision Scenarios 2025–2030

JPA Strategic Dossier — Structural Analysis Unit

GLP-1 receptor agonists have ceased to be a clinical phenomenon. They constitute a geoeconomic vector comparable to semiconductors, critical minerals or advanced biotechnology — reshaping industrial value chains, fiscal sustainability and regulatory competition at a global scale. This dossier provides a causal, structural reading for governments, insurers, pharmaceutical companies and adjacent industries.

Scope and structure:

The analysis spans twelve chapters: geostructural framework of the GLP-1 system, economic dynamics and fiscal pressure modelling, global competitiveness benchmarks across the US, EU, China, India and Spain, structural reconfiguration of the industrial ecosystem, sectoral implications for pharma, insurers and food/consumer industries, the legal dimension (competition, intellectual property, transparency), three strategic scenarios for 2026–2030, actor-specific playbooks, and proprietary disruption indicators.

Key analytical findings:

• The GLP-1 system operates under sustained structural pressure: demand consistently exceeds industrial capacity in peptide synthesis, fill-finish and cold-chain logistics, generating recurrent shortages.

• The United States consolidates structural advantage by integrating regulation, CapEx incentives and intellectual property into a coherent framework. In November 2025, price agreements reduced costs to $245–350/month for injectables and $149/month for orals with Medicare copays of $50 — establishing a new pricing baseline.

• Europe maintains a fragile equilibrium: regulatory fragmentation in reimbursement, insufficient manufacturing capacity and technology dependency risk converting the continent into a structural buyer of therapies whose cost will determine its fiscal margin for the coming decade.

• China and India are leveraging the strategic window to gain supplier power in peptide scaling, synthesis and devices — competing not on clinical narrative but on global capacity, marginal cost and international dependency.

• The GLP-1 phenomenon extends beyond pharma: documented reductions in grocery spending, processed snacks and alcohol among users are driving multinational food companies to restructure portfolios toward lower caloric density and higher protein content.

• Substitution capacity is structurally limited at 24–48 months. When over 40% of supply depends on two actors, the system faces elevated industrial vulnerability.

Strategic implication:

GLP-1 agonists inaugurate an order where power, manufacturing and regulation converge. Healthcare autonomy and fiscal stability through 2030 depend on securing supply, scaling production and negotiating sustainable pricing frameworks in an environment of accelerating technological rivalry. Organisations that structure their exposure now — fiscal, actuarial, industrial, legal and contractual — will reduce budgetary friction and strengthen negotiating capacity for 2026–2030.

Audience: Health ministries, public health systems, insurers and actuarial teams, pharmaceutical companies, CDMOs, food and consumer multinationals, competition authorities, investment committees.

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DOSSIER 1 — ESPAÑA 2025

España 2025: Fragmentación, Reconfiguración Institucional y Crisis de Cohesión

JPA Strategic Dossier — Unidad de Análisis Estructural

El sistema político español no se está hundiendo — pero su arquitectura simbólica soporta una presión estructural sostenida. Este dossier proporciona una lectura causal y no partidista de las fuerzas que reconfiguran el paisaje institucional español, diseñado para ejecutivos, diplomáticos, inversores y académicos que buscan una base rigurosa para análisis PESTEL, estudios de mercado y planificación estratégica.

Alcance: 8 capítulos que trazan la evolución del modelo democrático español desde la convergencia europea (1986–2008), la crisis económica y emocional (2008–2013), el proceso catalán (2010–2019), la mutación del sistema de partidos, la Ley de Amnistía, el colapso del campo institucional, la política algorítmica y la geopolítica interna como riesgo estratégico.

Hallazgos clave:

• España convergió del 72% al 91% del PIB medio UE entre 1986 y 2007, pero el crecimiento dependía estructuralmente de crédito, construcción y fondos de cohesión.

• El desempleo alcanzó el 26,1% en 2013, con un 55% de paro juvenil, quebrando el contrato social.

• La confianza en partidos políticos cayó al 4% de participación activa. El 73% de los españoles considera la justicia políticamente influenciada frente al 47% de media europea.

• El 58% de los jóvenes de 18–25 años se informa exclusivamente por redes sociales.

• España no está rota, pero está en pausa narrativa — la brecha entre continuidad legal y legitimidad simbólica constituye un riesgo sistémico.

Audiencia: Consejos de administración, comités de inversión, servicios diplomáticos, planificadores institucionales.

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DOSSIER 2 — HIDRÓGENO 2030

Hidrógeno 2030: Poder, Capital y la Última Ventana Estratégica

JPA Strategic Dossier — Unidad de Análisis Estructural

El hidrógeno no se está convirtiendo en un mercado global de commodities. Se está consolidando como un sistema estructurado por bloques, donde la competitividad la manufactura la regulación, la arquitectura de subsidios y la aplicación de la demanda — no las curvas de coste tecnológico.

Alcance: 10 capítulos cubriendo el horizonte 2025–2035: marco de decisión ejecutiva, ventana de lock-in 2026–2028, los tres bloques dominantes (EE.UU., Europa del Norte, Japón–Corea), decisiones por actor, playbooks por país (Alemania, Países Bajos, Italia, Finlandia), matriz regulatoria y 7 escenarios estratégicos.

Hallazgos clave:

• EE.UU. ha fabricado el ecosistema de hidrógeno más bancable del mundo mediante la IRA Sección 45V (hasta USD 3/kg). Los proyectos deben iniciar construcción antes de finales de 2027.

• Un proyecto europeo de 200 MW retrasado 18 meses enfrenta aumentos de WACC del 6,5–7,0% al 8,5–9,0%, costes de financiación incrementales de €110–140 millones y caída del offtake asegurado por debajo del 40%.

• Las estrategias exportadoras sin demanda anclada (MENA, Turquía, Golfo) enfrentan riesgo elevado de varado antes de 2030.

• La pregunta ejecutiva central ya no es "¿dónde se puede producir hidrógeno barato?" sino "¿qué bloque gobernará nuestro coste, nuestra certificación y nuestra demanda hasta 2035?"

Audiencia: CEOs, CFOs, directores de estrategia, ejecutivos energéticos, comités de inversión, ministerios, autoridades portuarias, bancos.

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DOSSIER 3 — GLP-1

GLP-1: La Nueva Arquitectura Global de la Salud — Dependencia Industrial, Presión Fiscal y Escenarios de Decisión 2025–2030

JPA Strategic Dossier — Unidad de Análisis Estructural

Los agonistas del receptor GLP-1 han dejado de ser un fenómeno clínico. Constituyen un vector geoeconómico comparable a semiconductores, minerales críticos o biotecnología avanzada — reconfigurando cadenas de valor industriales, sostenibilidad fiscal y competencia regulatoria a escala global.

Alcance: 12 capítulos: marco geoestructural, dinámicas económicas y modelización de presión fiscal, benchmarks de competitividad global (EE.UU., UE, China, India, España), reconfiguración del ecosistema industrial, implicaciones sectoriales (farma, aseguradoras, alimentación), dimensión legal, 3 escenarios estratégicos 2026–2030, playbooks por actor e indicadores propietarios de disrupción.

Hallazgos clave:

• El sistema GLP-1 opera bajo presión estructural sostenida: la demanda supera recurrentemente la capacidad industrial en síntesis peptídica, fill-finish y logística de cadena de frío.

• EE.UU. consolida ventaja estructural integrando regulación, CapEx y propiedad intelectual. En noviembre de 2025, acuerdos de precio redujeron costes a $245–350/mes para inyectables.

• Europa afronta un equilibrio frágil: fragmentación en reembolso, capacidad industrial insuficiente y dependencia tecnológica que arriesgan convertirla en compradora estructural de terapias cuyo coste determinará su margen fiscal.

• China e India ganan supplier power en escalado peptídico — compiten en capacidad global y coste marginal, no en narrativa clínica.

• El fenómeno se extiende más allá de farma: reducciones documentadas en gasto de alimentación, snacks procesados y alcohol entre usuarios GLP-1 están impulsando reestructuración de portafolios en multinacionales de alimentación.

Audiencia: Ministerios de sanidad, sistemas públicos de salud, aseguradoras, farma, CDMOs, multinacionales de alimentación, autoridades de competencia, comités de inversión.

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