Power Is the Missing Variable in Most Risk Models

Risk is rarely neutral.

It is shaped, redistributed and amplified by power — yet most risk models treat power as an externality, if they consider it at all.

This omission explains why otherwise sophisticated analyses consistently underestimate exposure in geopolitical and regulatory environments.

Risk without power is incomplete

Power determines:

• who sets the rules,

• who absorbs shocks,

• and who can shift consequences onto others.

Ignoring power leads to an illusion of symmetry, where actors appear equally constrained by risk. In reality, power asymmetries define how risk materializes and for whom.

How power redistributes exposure

In complex systems, risk does not disappear — it moves.

Actors with regulatory influence, political leverage or narrative control can externalize risk, delay its recognition or redefine its impact. Those without such leverage experience risk as sudden and disproportionate exposure.

Risk models that exclude power systematically misread these dynamics.

Anticipation failures in complex systems

Anticipation fails not because signals are absent, but because they are interpreted outside their power context.

Scenarios that ignore institutional behavior, political incentives and strategic interaction tend to extrapolate stability where none exists. The result is surprise — not because events were unpredictable, but because their drivers were misunderstood.

These dynamics cannot be understood without considering power, risk and strategic anticipation as an integrated whole.

Strategic consequences for decision-makers

Boards and institutions that integrate power into risk assessment:

• anticipate disruption earlier,

• recognize inflection points sooner,

• and preserve decision leverage longer.

Those that do not are governed by events rather than choices.

Learn more at Power, risk and strategic anticipation → /power-risk-strategic-anticipation

JPA provides independent strategic analysis for institutional decision-makers operating under systemic uncertainty.