Power, Risk and Strategic Anticipation

Risk does not exist in a vacuum.

It is shaped by power relations, institutional constraints and the capacity of actors to anticipate, absorb or externalize consequences.

Strategic anticipation is therefore not a technical exercise, but a political and institutional capability.

Strategic Anticipation in Complex Systems

In complex systems, anticipation is not about foresight accuracy.

It is about:

• recognizing inflection points,

• understanding constraint evolution,

• and preserving optionality before it collapses.

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Power as a Risk Modifier

Power determines:

• who bears risk,

• who transfers it,

• and who remains insulated from its consequences.

Ignoring power dynamics leads to systematic underestimation of exposure, particularly in geopolitical and regulatory environments.

Why Anticipation Fails

Anticipation fails when:

• signals are interpreted outside their power context,

• scenarios ignore institutional behavior,

• and strategic decisions assume neutrality where none exists.

True anticipation requires understanding how actors will react, not how models predict they should.

Implications for Institutions and Boards

Boards and institutions that integrate power into risk assessment:

• anticipate disruption earlier,

• retain decision leverage longer,

• and avoid reactive decision traps.

Those that do not are governed by events rather than choices.

JPA’s Perspective

JPA approaches anticipation as a strategic discipline grounded in:

• power analysis,

• systemic risk interpretation,

• and institutional behavior.

Our work supports decision-makers who operate where errors are costly and visibility is limited.