JP&A quoted at THE JAPAN TIMES
Using frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine to top G7 agenda
8/14/20245 min read


Boosting support for Kyiv, redirecting key supply chains away from China and setting guardrails for artificial intelligence applications will be just some of the topics discussed by the Group of Seven nations when their leaders meet Thursday to Saturday for a key summit in Italy.
Under the chairmanship of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, G7 leaders will have their hands full at the three-day gathering in the resort village of Borgo Egnazia, with the Israel-Gaza conflict, the intensifying U.S.-China rivalry and growing tensions in the Indo-Pacific also expected to be high on the agenda.
Just like last year’s summit in Hiroshima, the leaders will be joined by their counterparts from emerging and developing countries, as the G7 looks to step up cooperation to forge a united front on critical matters.
From Ukraine to Gaza
One of the most pressing security issues at the meeting will be how to use profits generated by Russian assets frozen in the West to the benefit of Ukraine, as it continues to suffer battlefield setbacks.
G7 nations have around $300 billion in frozen Russian assets in their respective countries and have been considering using interest generated by those funds to issue a large loan to Kyiv.
At a meeting in May, the G7 finance ministers said they were making “progress” on the issue, with the grouping’s leaders expected to reach an agreement on how to proceed at this week’s summit.
“Negotiators are working overtime ahead of the summit to iron out the final wrinkles in the plan,” said Rodger Baker, executive director at the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at intelligence firm RANE.
There are still differences between Europe and the United States on how the money will be used, whether it will be collateral for a loan, how the loan would be structured and how it would be used by Ukraine.
“But given the significance of the topic, and the broad agreement, in general, we expect the participants to come to some sort of compromise in time to announce an agreement during the summit,” Baker said.
But others have argued that, given the differing perspectives and legal complexities, a conclusive deal may prove elusive, with a deal to establish a framework for future discussions instead being reached.
“This framework could serve as a foundation for coordinated action, ensuring that Russia is held accountable for its aggression and that the Ukrainian people receive support to rebuild their nation,” said Jose Parejo, head of the Madrid-based intelligence consultancy JP & Associates.
To drive home the sense of urgency, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will personally attend the summit for the second year in a row before heading to Switzerland for a Ukraine peace conference over the weekend.
While the Ukraine war will take top billing, G7 leaders are also set to ramp up pressure on Hamas militants to accept a U.S.-pushed cease-fire and hostage release deal with Israel in a bid to halt the 8-month-old conflict in Gaza.
U.S. President Joe Biden, who has broadly supported Israel, recently confirmed Tel Aviv’s readiness to move forward with the terms the deal would offer Hamas, saying that the group is “now the only obstacle” to a complete cease-fire.
But a groundbreaking solution to the conflict is not expected at the G7 summit.
“The most optimistic scenario entails a joint declaration outlining a roadmap for future negotiations, albeit with ambiguous timelines and nonbinding objectives,” Parejo said.
Countering China
While North Korea and its burgeoning security cooperation with Russia will also feature prominently at the meeting, the West’s intensifying geopolitical rivalry with China will also cast a long shadow over the gathering.
Beijing’s “aggressive” activities around Taiwan and in the East and South China Seas, in particular, are slated to be addressed. But a big focus will also be on G7 efforts to redirect key supply chains away from China in order to reduce over-reliance on Beijing and promote domestic production of critical items such as semiconductors.
G7 leaders are also expected to warn Beijing about continuing to provide Moscow with dual-use items that support Russia’s defense-industrial complex while calling on Chinese banks to cease assisting Moscow in evading Western sanctions.
Migration and Africa
Migration — a hot-button issue that dominated recent European elections — will be another focus of the summit.
Statistics show that 5.1 million migrants reached the European Union from non-EU countries in 2022, more than double the figure of 2021. Migration remains a polarizing subject across several G7 countries, including the U.S., where it has become a contentious campaign issue ahead of November’s presidential election.
Since her October 2022 election on an anti-immigration platform, Italy’s Meloni has attempted to curb illegal immigration and chart a new path for Rome's relations with its African neighbors, where the vast majority of migrants are from.
In a sign that she intends to continue to forge this path, a contingent of leaders and senior officials from several African countries — including Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia and Kenya, alongside with the chair of the African Union — have reportedly been invited to the G7 summit.
Multilateral meetings on Africa will kick off Thursday and span several days, with the talks covering broader issues such as climate change and development. After a session entirely dedicated to migration Friday, invited nations will join G7 leaders for open discussions on various subjects, including Africa and the Mediterranean.
While migration doesn’t retain the central focus in Japan as it does in Europe, Tokyo has recently taken concrete steps to allow a higher number of foreign workers into the country — part of an effort to tackle widespread labor shortages.
The number of foreign residents has reached record levels, but the ratio remains significantly lower than other G7 members.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Gutierrez will attend the summit, while both India and Saudi Arabia have also been invited.
AI & climate
At the summit, the leaders will also seek to fine-tune a coordinated approach to AI.
On the heels of last year’s Hiroshima summit — where Japan put great emphasis on AI — the Italian presidency will work to muster a broad consensus for an updated set of guardrails around an “ethical” approach to the technology.
In a joint statement last November, G7 leaders pledged to follow up on the Hiroshima AI Process, a multilateral framework established at last year’s summit to guide organizations developing AI systems.
Meloni, herself, has repeatedly voiced concerns over the impact of AI on the workforce, stressing the need to keep AI governance “human-centered” and “human-controlled.”
Pope Francis will also become the first head of the Catholic Church to attend a G7 summit, delivering a keynote address Friday outlining his vision for AI.
The Vatican has been active with the issue, releasing a guide for ethics in AI in 2020 that spelled out fears the tech could be a gradual replacement for people in the workforce and was endorsed by companies such as Microsoft and IBM, as well as the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization.
On the climate front, the G7 summit will be yet another step in the lead-up to November’s COP29 climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, after G7 ministers agreed in April on a timeline to phase out coal-fired power plants by the first half of the 2030s.
While no major deliverables are likely on climate change, a strong G7 commitment to fully move away from fossil fuels is expected.